The Decision: Looking at where Peyton Manning May End Up
February 26, 2012 1 Comment
For the past 15 days, I have been looking at where Peyton Manning may end up if he is released from the Indianapolis Colts. I looked at the Arizona Cardinals,San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Redskins, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, and Tennessee Titans.
Here is a table of what I concluded (NOTE: numbers are purely speculative, they are not based on statistical analysis. They are meant to stand on their own, not all be added together. Sorry for the confusion):
| Team | Chance of Landing Peyton | Chance of playoffs with healthy Peyton | Chance of super bowl with healthy Peyton |
| Cardinals | 7/10 | 99% | 60% |
| 49ers | 4/10 | 100% | 85% |
| Seahawks | 6/10 | 90% | 50% |
| Redskins | 6/10 | 90% | 45% |
| Vikings | 6/10 | 90% | 50% |
| Broncos | 5/10 | 99% | 75% |
| Raiders | 2/10 | 85% | 40% |
| Jets | 5/10 | 99% | 65% |
| Bills | 2/10 | 90% | 35% |
| Dolphins | 6/10 | 95% | 65% |
| Browns | 3/10 | 90% | 50% |
| Colts | 4/10 | 95% | 55% |
| Jaguars | 4/10 | 90% | 50% |
| Texans | 2/10 | 99% | 80% |
| Titans | 4/10 | 90% | 40% |
So the teams with a legitimate shot (5/10 or higher chance of landing Peyton) of signing Peyton Manning are: the Cardinals, Seahawks, Redskins, Vikings, Broncos, Jets, and Dolphins. 7 teams. I am taking the Jets out of the conversation, because I just really do not think that Peyton will play for them. That leaves 6. Of those, here are the rankings of the chance I think they would have at the playoffs and a super bowl win.
Playoffs:
1. Broncos
Cardinals
2. Dolphins
3. Seahawks
Redskins
Vikings
Super Bowl:
1. Broncos
2. Dolphins
3. Cardinals
4. Seahawks
Vikings
5. Redskins
The Broncos sound like the best option for Peyton. But I honestly do not see them making a big push for Peyton, and I do not know if Peyton would want to go there because of Tim Tebow.
The Dolphins? I think they are going to go with Matt Flynn instead.
The Cardinals? I think the Cardinals are the best spot for Peyton Manning to realistically end up. They have talent, and they can win with Peyton.
The Seahawks are a decent team, but I am not sure if they are good enough. Same for the Vikings and the Redskins. They have pieces and talent, but they are not great teams.
So my vote goes to the Arizona Cardinals.
But as we so often know in sports, it is impossible to predict what will happen.
About Josh Wilson
A lot of these odds for all of these teams seem high, especially on the Super Bowl line when at least for the NFC top tier teams, they’re pretty stacked at QB. And the odds “blank in 10” would need to add up to 10. I wouldn’t include the Cardinals at the top because they’ve invested so much in Kolb. Seattle has only $4m invested in QB with Tavaris. Miami probably prefers Flynn w/ the coach from GB. KC would be a good option on the back half of Cassel’s big contract.