The Decision: Looking at the Oakland Raiders’ Chances of Landing Peyton Manning

The Decision: Looking at where Peyton Manning may end up if he becomes a free agent… today, we look at the:


Oakland is a stretch.  They paid a fortune for Carson Palmer last year, and they also have Jason Campbell (who I think is a better option for the team than Palmer).  They do not have a first round pick this year (in fact, they do not have a pick for the first few rounds) and are not much better off next year.  

Their receiving core is not very good, and their defense is average.  They have strong running backs (Darren McFadden and Michael Bush), but that is about it.  

Oakland has a new head coach, Dennis Allen (the former Broncos’ defensive coordinator) and new GM Reggie McKenzie (Green Bay) and him will likely begin rebuilding the team.  

So why would Peyton Manning possibly go to Oakland. 

He won’t. 

I only included the Raiders on this list because I have heard the Raiders mentioned quite a bit.  Let me tell you, it will not happen. 

Chances of landing Manning:                      2/10 

Chances of playoffs with healthy Manning:                       85% 

Chances of winning super bowl with healthy Manning:   40%


About Josh Wilson
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4 Responses to The Decision: Looking at the Oakland Raiders’ Chances of Landing Peyton Manning

  1. rob says:

    You don’t watch much football raiders have way better receivers than the colts!

    • Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Dallas Clark… one of the best receiving core in the NFL when healthy.

  2. Jacoby Ford says:

    Those are all really high probabilities. if the Raiders have a 40% chance of winning the superbowl without manning it means that if this season was played 10 times, we would expect the Raiders to win 4 out of those 10. That would most likely be the highest probability of winning out of all teams in the NFL since the rest of the teams would have to share the rest of the 60% chance of winning.

    I think your numbers are BS. Take a stat/probability course or something it will help you look less stupid when trying to give you opinions with probabilities

    You say the receivers are no good but you don’t say why and even fail to mention any of their names. What kind of analysis is that?

    I take it, you’re probably a high school or college freshman who is just starting to learn how to write.

    • Thanks for the comment…

      First off, my numbers were not meant to add up. They are chances that they could and likely would, not definetly will. For instance, Raiders would not win the super bowl 4 out of 10 times, however, with Peyton Manning they would be good enough to win it 4/10 times. Sorry I did not make that clearer.

      Secondly, you are right. I should have included names. Jacoby Ford (nice name) has very good speed, but is not a great all-around wideout. Darius Heyward-Bey and Lance Moore are not quite the type of guys I would feel comfortable as my WRs either.

      There is no way to know what teams would look like with or even without Peyton Manning next year.

      I apologize for the confusion and really appreciate the comment.

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